A Treatise on Probability - Keynes, John Maynard

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Résumé :
Part I Fundamental ideas CHAPTER I The Meaning of Probability CHAPTER II Probability in Relation to the Theory of Knowledge CHAPTER III The Measurement of Probabilities CHAPTER IV The Principle of Indifference CHAPTER V Other Methods of Determining Probabilities CHAPTER VI The Weight of Arguments CHAPTER VII Historical Retrospect CHAPTER VIII The Frequency Theory of Probability CHAPTER IX The Constructive Theory of Part I. Summarized PART II Fundamental Theorems CHAPTER X Introductory CHAPTER XI The Theory of Groups, with special reference to Logical Consistence, Inference, and Logical Priority. CHAPTER XII The Definitions and Axioms of Inference and Probability CHAPTER XIII The Fundamental Theorems of Necessary Inference CHAPTER XIV The Fundamental Theorems of Probable Inference CHAPTER XV Numerical Measurement and Approximation of Probabilities CHAPTER XVI Observations on the Theorems of Chapter XIV. and their Developments, including Testimony CHAPTER XVII Some Problems in Inverse Probability, including Averages PART III Induction and Analogy CHAPTER XVIII Introduction CHAPTER XIX The Nature of Argument by Analogy CHAPTER XX The Value of Multiplication of Instances, or Pure Induction CHAPTER XXI The Nature of Inductive Argument Continued CHAPTER XXII The Justification of these Methods CHAPTER XXIII Some Historical Notes on Induction PART IV Some Philosophical Applications of Probability CHAPTER XXIV The Meanings of Objective Chance, and of Randomness CHAPTER XXV Some Problems arising out of the Discussion of Chance CHAPTER XXVI The Application of Probability to Conduct PART V The Foundations of Statistical Inference CHAPTER XXVII The Nature of Statistical Inference CHAPTER XXVIII The Law of Great Numbers CHAPTER XXIX The Use of ? priori Probabilities for the Prediction of Statistical Frequency-the Theorems of Bernoulli, Poisson, and Tchebycheff CHAPTER XXX The Mathematical use of Statistical Frequencies for the Determination of Probability ? posteriori-the Methods of Laplace CHAPTER XXXI The Inversion of Bernoulli's Theorem CHAPTER XXXII The Inductive use of Statistical Frequencies for the Determination of Probability ? posteriori-the Methods of Lexis CHAPTER XXXIII Outline of a Constructive Theory...