Goodwin, P: Decision Analysis for Management Judgment -

Résumé :
In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

Biographie:
Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioural Decision Making. George Wright is Professor of Management at the Business School, Durham University. He is the founding Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and an Associate Editor of two forecasting journals: International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting. He is also an Associate Editor of Decision Support Systems and a member of the editorial board of Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.

Sommaire:
Foreword by Lawrence D. Phillips Preface Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: Alternatives to SMART Chapter 5 Introduction to probability Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty Chapter 17 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions Suggested answers to selected questions Index