Positional Option Trading - Euan Sinclair

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Résumé :

Introduction xi

Trading as a Process xiii

Summary xv

Chapter 1 Options: A Summary 1

Option Pricing Models 1

Option Trading Theory 4

Conclusion 10

Summary 10

Chapter 2 The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Limitations 11

The Efficient Market Hypothesis 11

Aside: Alpha Decay 15

Behavioral Finance 16

High-Level Approaches: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis 21

Conclusion 27

Summary 27

Chapter 3 Forecasting Volatility 29

Model-Driven Forecasting and Situational Forecasting 30

The GARCH Family and Trading 33

Implied Volatility as a Predictor 36

Ensemble Predictions 36

Conclusion 38

Summary 38

Chapter 4 The Variance Premium 39

Aside: The Implied Variance Premium 40

Variance Premium in Equity Indices 42

The Implied Skewness Premium 46

The Implied Correlation Premium 47

Commodities 47

Bonds 49

The VIX 50

Currencies 50

Equities 50

Reasons for the Variance Premium 51

Insurance 52

Jump Risk 52

Trading Restrictions 52

Market-Maker Inventory Risk 52

Path Dependency of Returns 53

The Problem of the Peso Problem 55

Conclusion 56

Summary 56

Chapter 5 Finding Trades with Positive Expected Value 57

Aside: Crowding 57

Trading Strategies 61

Options and Fundamental Factors 63

Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) 68

Confidence Level Two 71

The Overnight Effect 75

FOMC and Volatility 75

The Weekend Effect 77

Volatility of Volatility Risk Premia 78

Confidence Level One 80

Earnings-Induced Reversals 80

Pre-Earnings Announcement Drift 81

Conclusion 82

Summary 83

Chapter 6 Volatility Positions 85

Aside: Adjustment and Position ''Repair'' 86

Straddles and Strangles 86

Aside: Delta-Hedged Positions 93

Butterflies and Condors 95

Aside: Broken Wing Butterflies and Condors 99

Calendar Spread 100

Including Implied Volatility Skew 102

Strike Choice 104

Choosing a Hedging Strike 107

Expiration Choice 109

Conclusion 111

Summary 111

Chapter 7 Directional Option Trading 113

Subjective Option Pricing 113

A Theory of Subjective Option Pricing 115

Distribution of Option Returns: Summary Statistics 118

Strike Choice 120

Fundamental Considerations 124

Conclusion 124

Summary 125

Chapter 8 Directional Option Strategy Selection 127

Long Stock 128

Long Call 129

Long Call Spread 130

Short Put 131

Covered Calls 131

Components of Covered Call Profits 134

Covered Calls and Fundamentals 136

Short Put Spread 137

Risk Reversal 138

Aside: The Risk Reversal as a Skew Trade 141

Ratio Spreads 142

Conclusion 145

Summary 145

Chapter 9 Trade Sizing 147

The Kelly Criterion 147

Non-normal Discrete Outcomes 149

Non-normal Continuous Outcomes 151

Uncertain Parameters 154

Kelly and Drawdown Control 158

The Effect of Stops 161

Conclusion 170

Summary 170

Chapter 10 Meta Risks 171

Currency Risk 171

Theft and Fraud 173

Example One: Baring's Bank 174

Example Two: Yasumo Hamanaka, aka ''Mr. Copper'' 175

Example Three: Bernie Madoff 176

Index Restructuring 177

Arbitrage Counterparty Risk 178

Conclusion 179

Summary 179

Conclusion 181

Appendix 1 T...