Technology Shocks - Arnold, Heinrich M.

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Résumé :
Radical technological changes (so-called technology shocks) frequently disrupt the competitive market structure. New entrants appear, industries need to be redefined, incumbents lose their positions or vanish completely. Fast moving industries - like the often quoted example of the semiconductor industry - have preferably been analyzed for these phenomena. But do the findings hold for industries with longer development cycles like the global machine tool industry? Here, multivariate analysis is used to find out what management needs to focus on in order to lead companies through the technology shocks. The research for this book builds on in-depth interviews with 100 experts and decision makers from the machine tool industry involved in technology shocks and statistical analysis of detailed quantitative surveys collected from 58 companies. In several instances the results challenge classical teaching of technology management. ...

Sommaire:
1 Frameworks to capture technology shocks: an attempt to integrate current streams of thought.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Frameworks.- 1.3 Patterns of technology shocks and the product life cycle.- 1.4 Implications for research.- 2 Success factors for surviving technology shocks.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Main theoretical and methodological streams.- 2.3 'When Darwin strikes': success factors for overcoming technology shocks.- 2.4 Implications for research.- 3 Research gaps and methodology.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Need for additional research.- 3.3 Goals and approach of the research process.- 3.4 The pre-tests.- 3.5 Making the questionnaire available.- 3.6 'Top management still not online'.- 3.7 The necessity of networking.- 3.8 'Going beyond the fruit fly' implications for research.- 4 The machine tool industry and the effects of technological change.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 The machine tool industry after World War II.- 4.3 The availability of information about the industries' recent history.- 4.4 Location of invention, role of national research programs, and no advantage for first movers.- 4.5 Patterns and extent of technological change: between shock and evolution.- 4.6 The Japanese success story.- 4.7 External factors.- 4.8 The next wave - trends and future technological changes.- 4.9 Implications for an analysis of technology shocks in the machine tool industry.- 5 Descriptive analysis.- 5.1 Company data and technology shock waves.- 5.2 The manager's mind - the perceived importance of success factors for the survival of technology shocks.- 5.3 Secondary findings from the analysis of importance ratings.- 5.4 Conclusion on manager ratings.- 5.5 Managing technology shocks - determinants that distinguish winners from losers.- 5.6 Summary of thedescriptive analysis.- 6 Multivariate analysis.- 6.1 Introduction of scales.- 6.2 Differences of the scales' means between winners and losers.- 6.3 'Early' and 'late' losers.- 6.4 Determining causal relations through multivariate analysis.- 6.5 Displaying survival.- 6.6 Analyzing the determinants of survival.- 6.7 A combined model of managing technology shocks.- 6.8 Summary of the multivariate results.- 7 Conclusion and outlook.- Appendix of chapter 1.- Appendix of chapter 3.- Appendix of chapter 4.- Appendix of chapter 5.- Appendix of chapter 6.- List of figures.- List of tables.- Abbreviations.- References.