Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics -

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Résumé :
Like the first two volumes, this third volume of case studies presents detailed applications of Bayesian statistical analysis, emphasizing the sci? entific context. The papers were presented and discussed at a workshop at Carnegie Mellon University, October 5-7, 1995. In this volume, which is dedicated to the memory of Morris H. DeGroot, econometric applica? tions are highlighted. There are six invited papers, each with accompany? ing invited discussion, and eight contributed papers (which were selected following refereeing). In addition, we include prefatory recollections about Morrie DeGroot by James o. Berger and Richard M. Cyert. INVITED PAPERS In Probing Public Opinion: The State of Valencia Experience, Jose Bernardo, who was a scientific advisor to the President of the State of Valencia, Spain, summarizes procedures that were set up to probe public opinion, and were used as an input to the government's decision making process. At the outset, a sample survey had to be designed. The problem of finding an optimal Bayesian design, based on logarithmic divergence be? tween probability distributions, involves minimization over 21483 points in the action space. To solve it, simulated annealing was used. The author describes the objective of obtaining the probability that an individual clas? sified in a certain group will prefer one of several possible alternatives, and his approach using posterior distributions based on reference priors.

Sommaire:
Invited Papers (with discussion).- 1. Probing Public Opinion: the State of Valencia Experience.- 2. Pressure Matching for Hydrocarbon Reservoirs: A Case Study in the Use of Bayes Linear Strategies for Large Computer Experiments.- 3. Hierarchical Bayes Models for Micro-Marketing Strategies.- 4. Modeling Mortality Rates for Elderly Heart Attack Patients: Profiling Hospitals in the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project.- 5. A Bayesian Approach to the Modeling of Spatial-Temporal Precipitation Data.- 6. Variable Selection Tests of Asset Pricing Models.- Contributed Papers.- 7. Modeling the History of Diabetic Retinopathy.- 8.Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for Prevalence Estimation.- 9. Estimating the Cells of a Contingency Table with Limited Information, for Use in Geodemographic Marketing.- 10. Multiresolution Assessment of Forest Inhomogeneity.- 11. Assessment of Deleterious Gene Models Using Predictive p-values.- 12. Bayesian Inference for the Best Ordinal Multinomial Population in a Taste Test.- 13. A Random Effects Multinomial Probit Model of Car Ownership Choice.- 14. Changepoint Modeling of Longitudinal PSA as a Biomarker for Prostate Cancer.- 15. A Subjective Bayesian Approach to Environmental Sampling.