Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts - Hendrickson, Noel

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Résumé :
Acknowledgements About the Author Introduction Part I: The Background to Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Chapter 1: An Introduction to Reasoning Chapter 2: An Introduction to Intelligence Analysis Chapter 3: An Introduction to the Information Age Part II: The Theory of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning in General Chapter 4: Important Extant Approaches to Reasoning The Structural, Informal Logical, and Elements of the Mind Paradigms Chapter 5: The Multidimensional Approach to Reasoning Introducing the Personal, Procedural, and Problem-Specific Dimensions Chapter 6: The Personal Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Virtues to Embody Chapter 7: The Procedural Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Rules to Follow Chapter 8: The Problem-Specific Dimension of Reasoning Ideal Reasoning as Questions to Ask Part III: The Practice of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning in General Chapter 9: How to Know Your Personal Characteristics as an Analyst The Method of Analytic Balance Check Chapter 10: How to Know Your Process of Analysis The Method of Analytic Process Reflection Chapter 11: How to Know the Right Problem for Analysis The Method of Analytic Problem Classification Part IV: The Theory of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About What is Happening? Chapter 12: Important Extant Approaches to Hypothesis Development The Falsificationist, Bayesian, and Explanationist Paradigms Chapter 13: The Multidimensional Approach to Hypothesis Development Introducing the Idea, Information, and Implication Dimensions Part V: The Practice of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About What is Happening? Chapter 14: How to Generate New Ideas The Method of Dialectical Hypothesis Generation Chapter 15: How to Develop the Most Probable Hypothesis The Method of Triadic Hypothesis Development Chapter 16: How to Recognize What Has Been Taken For Granted The Method of Underlying Assumptions Triangulation Part VI: The Theory of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About Why This is Happening? Chapter 17: Important Extant Approaches to Causal Analysis The Probabilistic, Interventionist, and Systems Dynamics Paradigms Chapter 18: The Multidimensional Approach to Causal Analysis Introducing the Sequence, System, and Surprise Dimensions Part VII: The Practice of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About Why This is Happening? Chapter 19: How to Identify Individual Connections The Method of Causal Influence Classification Chapter 20: How to Identify Collective Connections The Method of Causal Loop Diagramming Chapter 21: How to Identify Unexpected Connections (And How Something is Partly an Unintended Consequence) The Method of Background Shift Analysis Part VIII: The Theory of Futures Exploration for Intelligence Analysts Paradigms of Reasoning About When and Where Might This Change? Chapter 22: Important Extant Approaches to Futures Exploration The Forecasting, Megatrend, and Scenario Paradigms Chapter 23: The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration Introducing the Origin, Outreach, and Outcome Dimensions Part IX: The Practice of Futures Exploration for Intelligence Analysts Methods of Reasoning About When and Where Might This Change? Chapter 24: How to Find the Most Plausible Origin of a Future Possibility The Method of Convergent Scenario Development (Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage I) Chapter 25: How to Integrate a Futures Estimate into the Bigger Picture (And Foresee Possible Unintended Consequences) The Method of Ripple Effect Analysis (Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage II) Chapter 26: How to Identify the Most Plausible Future Outco...

Biographie:
Noel Hendrickson is associate professor and a founding faculty member of the Intelligence Analysis Program at James Madison University. He earned a PhD in Philosophy from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and has over a decade of experience teaching reasoning methods to aspiring intelligence analysts....

Sommaire:
Noel Hendrickson...