Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making -

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Résumé :
Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Research Conference, Rome, September 3-6, 1973

Sommaire:
Section I. Multi-Attribute Utility.- Editors' Introduction.- Experimental Applications of Multi-Attribute Utility Models.- Multi-Attribute Utility Theory: Models and Assessment Procedures.- How We Can Use the Notion of Semi-Orders to Build Outranking Relations in Multi-Criteria Decision Making.- Multi-Criteria Decision Making: Comments on Jacquet-Lagr?ze's Paper.- An Investigation of Subjective Preference Orderings for Multi-Attributed Alternatives.- Section II. Subjective Probability.- Editors' Introduction.- Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.- A Structural Theory of Uncertain Knowledge.- Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments.- A Three-Step Procedure for Assigning Probabilities to Rare Events.- Section III. Probability in Courtroom Decision Making.- Editors' Introduction.- Probabilities and the Law.- Probabilistic Analysis of Identification Evidence.- Juror Decisions and the Determination of Guilt in Capital Punishment Cases: A Bayesian Perspective.- Section IV. Some Alternative Views on Decision Behavior.- Editors' Introduction.- Utility, Welfare, and Probability: An Unorthodox Economist's View.- Search Behavior in Non-Simultaneous Choice Situations: Satisficing or Maximizing?.- Decision Time as a Function of Task Complexity.- Decision Time and Task Complexity: Comments on Hogarth's Paper.- Section V. Dynamic Decision Making.- Editors' Introduction.- Research Paradigms for Studying Dynamic Decision Behavior.- Dynamic Decision Behavior: Comments on Rapoport's Paper.- Section VI. Problems of Collective Decision Making.- Editors' Introduction.- Some Observations on Theories of Collective Decisions.- The Use of Decision Analysis in the Public Sector.- Index of Names.- Index of Subjects.