Clear Thinking - Pherson, Randolph H.

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Résumé :
This book enables analysts in government and the private sector as well as policy advisors and decision makers to assess global risks and opportunities systematically, make well-founded and informed decisions, and anticipate the unanticipated. The authors illuminate the basics of intuitive and analytical thinking and how structured techniques can mitigate the impact of cognitive biases, misapplied heuristics, and intuitive traps. Three case studies illustrate how to apply over 30 Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) with step-by-step instructions. The final chapter focuses on how to optimize the impact of your analytic product, be it a paper, briefing, or digital display.

Biographie:
Ole Donner ist Gr?nder des Trainings- und Beratungsunternehmens Strukturierte Analyse Deutschland und agiert in dieser Position als Trainer und Berater. Zu seinen Kunden z?hlen staatliche Institutionen wie die Kriminalpolizei, zwischenstaatliche Organisationen wie die NATO sowie nationale und internationale Wirtschaftsunternehmen. Sein Ziel lautet stets: die jeweilige Intelligence- und Analysef?higkeit zu steigern. Ole Donner ist Research Fellow am Institute for Intelligence and Security Management an der Northern Business School Hamburg und Initiator der German Intelligence Community Conference. Oliver Gnad ist Gr?nder des Bureaus f?r Zeitgeschehen, einer Denkfabrik, die sich auf strategische Vorausschau und Szenarien-Planung spezialisiert hat. Gnad ist Senior Visiting Fellow des German Marshall Fund of the United States, Dozent an der Hertie School in Berlin und zertifizierter Senior Instructor f?r Strukturierte Analyse-Techniken (SAT). Randolph H. Pherson ist Mitbegr?nder und war bis zu seinem Tod im Januar 2024 Gesch?ftsf?hrer von Pherson Associates. Er hat Analysten in vielen L?ndern der Welt, darunter Gro?britannien, Italien, Norwegen, D?nemark, Spanien, Rum?nien, Australien, Saudi-Arabien und Hongkong, fortgeschrittene Analysetechniken und F?higkeiten zum kritischen Denken vermittelt. ...

Sommaire:
Randolph H. Pherson was Co-Founder and Managing Director of Pherson Associates, LLC and CEO of Globalytica, LLC. He had taught advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in most US Intelligence Community agencies, in ten of the Fortune 100 companies, and in many countries around the world including the UK, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Spain, Romania, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Hong Kong. Ole Donner is the founder of Strukturierte Analyse Deutschland (Structured Analysis Germany) and in this position acts as a trainer and consultant for governmental institutions such as the Criminal Police, intergovernmental organizations such as NATO as well as national and international companies with the aim of enhancing their intelligence and analysis capabilities. Mr. Donner is also a Research Fellow at the Institute for Intelligence and Security Management (I2SM) at the NBS Northern Business School. Oliver Gnad is the founder and managing director of the Bureau fuer Zeitgeschehen (Bureau of Current Affairs), a Frankfurt-based think-and-do-tank specialised in strategic foresight and scenario planning. He is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, lecturer at the Berlin-based Hertie School and certified by Pherson Associates, LLC as a Senior Instructor of Structured Analytic Techniques....