Integrated Inferences - Alan M Jacobs

. .

Résumé :
There is a growing consensus in the social sciences on the virtues of research strategies that combine quantitative with qualitative tools of inference. Integrated Inferences develops a framework for using causal models and Bayesian updating for qualitative and mixed-methods research. By making, updating, and querying causal models, researchers are able to integrate information from different data sources while connecting theory and empirics in a far more systematic and transparent manner than standard qualitative and quantitative approaches allow. This book provides an introduction to fundamental principles of causal inference and Bayesian updating and shows how these tools can be used to implement and justify inferences using within-case (process tracing) evidence, correlational patterns across many cases, or a mix of the two. The authors also demonstrate how causal models can guide research design, informing choices about which cases, observations, and mixes of methods will be most useful for addressing any given question.

Biographie:
Macartan Humphreys is Professor of Political Science at Columbia University and Director of the Institutions and Political Inequality group at the WZB Berlin, conducting research on post-conflict development, ethnic politics, and democratic decision-making. He has been President of the APSA Experimental Political Science section and Executive Director of the Evidence on Governance and Politics network.

Sommaire:
1. Introduction; I. Foundations: 2. Causal models; 3. Illustrating causal models; 4. Causal queries; 5. Bayesian answers; 6. Theories as causal models; II. Model-based causal inference: 7. Process tracing with causal models; 8. Process tracing applications; 9. Integrated inferences; 10. Integrated inferences applications; 11. Mixing models; III. Design choices: 12. Clue selection as a decision problem; 13. Case selection; 14. Going wide, going deep; IV. Models in question: 15. Justifying models; 16. Evaluating models; 17. Final words; V. Appendices: 18. Causal Queries; 19. Glossary; Bibliography; Index.